Is a major market correction headed our way?
What should I do about it?
What is a market correction, anyway?
Why is it going to happen?
Well, I believe there are 3 big reasons why we are going to see a major correction sometime soon.
But first, let’s answer the big question. What exactly is a market correction? In pure ‘big finance’ terms a market correction is a drop of 5-20% in stock values in a relatively short amount of time. A quick market dip of sorts. Not quite as quick as the flash crash but not nearly as long as a true bear market. I like the term ‘correction’ here because it implies, usually rightly so, that stock prices are artificially high and need to be corrected to their fundamental values.
For an idea of what these fundamental values are and how to find them take a look at “The Intelligent Investor” by Benjamin Graham.
For our purposes just suffice it to say that there has been a rapid run-up in stock prices that are not driven by the values of the underlying securities. said differently. Stock indexes are high because of undue optimism, government fiddling and other stuff that is not based on the actual value of the companies whose stocks make up the index.
So what are the 3 reasons a market correction is imminent?
1. June 30 marks the end of QE2. QE2 is the government policy of quantitative easing that was essentially the Federal Reserve’s program to buy a ton ($600 billion= a ton) of bonds. this was supposed to grease the skids by holding down long term interest rate in effect making mortgages cheaper for people to get and reduce the cost of new projects for businesses. The big problem here is that if this hail mary pass gets fumbled, the result will be that inflation will kick in and kill the fledgling recovery. To use another metaphor, the Fed is pushing the economic jalopy one last time hoping that businesses and consumers will pop the clutch and drive off into the sunset.
2. The smart money is heading to safer ground. What are billionaires doing? they are putting their assets in currency (i.e cold, hard cash). This is a fear/wait and see what is going to happen response. Cash is not a good investment because inflation will eat it up. Everyone knows this. Billionaires know this and are still fleeing to cash. Why? Perhaps they know something.
3. How are house prices still going down? Impossible! Interest rates are at an all-time low and there is a glut of empty homes on the market. Home prices and interest rates are low, right? Not quite so fast. We are actually nowhere near the bottom in the U.S. housing market. Check out the Case Shiller.
Home Values Index Case Shiller
The collusion and corruption that artificially inflated home values has only been barely touched so far. After 1999 home prices took off not because homes started to become so well built and wonderful (quite the opposite) It was because incentives were in place for banks to screw us and politicians to look the other way. Unfortunately, Our fine public servants and regulators seem to still be in bed with Wall Street. Sad. Home prices will need to get to pre-1999 levels before growth in this sector picks up again. The economics of this are rather simple. The only way a middle-class family can afford to buy a home with the new, stricter lending rules in place is to buy a cheaper one. Requiring 20% down, for example, is good policy since it puts the buyers skin in the game and requires financial discipline to achieve. The downside for now is that 20% of $400,000 is $80,000. Way more than most families have at their disposal. With job security looking shaky for many and dropping prices all around people are afraid to get in. Even folks with the requisite 20% down and interested in buying have an incentive to wait for the bottom.
So, as an investor, what are my options?
It really depends on how you personally read the tea leaves. If you think that there will in fact be a major overall stock market drop of 20% or more then rebalancing your 401k/IRA dollars into cash or cash equivalents in the short term might be prudent. There are 2 major things coming up that are sure to create uncertainty in the marketplace: QE2 ending in late June and the debt ceiling being reached early August. Shifting from equities to cash for a few months might not be a bad idea.
But what if stocks keep going up? What if you are wrong and the DOW goes to 15,000?
Rule # 1: As soon as you opt out of any investment it will take off like the Space Shuttle (or at least appear to). Right now stocks are close to an all-time high. If you stay fully invested in the stock market (assuming your positions are in index funds) you could possibly eek out another 2-4 %.
If the DOW climbs steadily to 15K then I’ll eat my hat.
If a correction happens it will be brief, don’t try to time the bottom since the bounce back up will be sudden. get back into equities and ride it all the way back up.
In the 2004 Berkshire Hathaway chairman’s letter, Warren buffet quipped, “Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” (emphasis mine)
Thoughts?
WR
